Methodology
Where every number comes from.
The planner shows a dollar figure for almost everything. Each one carries a label, and the label tells you how much to trust it. This page explains the three labels, the data behind them, and what we do not know.
The three labels
Published A figure taken from a named source on a stated date, with arithmetic you can check. Example: the one-day ticket price for your park on your date, multiplied by your party, plus 6.5% Florida sales tax. If the source is right, the number is right.
Estimate Arithmetic on published figures with an assumption you can change. Example: a dinner priced from a restaurant's published entree range, at the midpoint, for two adults and two children, with tax and an 18% tip. Change the price point or the tip and the number moves.
Yours A number you typed: a hotel quote you got from Disney, your flights, your souvenir budget. We do not check it.
The data
| What | Coverage | Source and date | What it does not cover |
|---|---|---|---|
| Park tickets | 365 dated one-day adult prices across all four parks; child price is the adult price less $5 | Capture of Disney's public ticket calendar, October 11, 2026 | Multi-day tickets, Park Hopper, annual passes, Florida resident and promotional pricing |
| Dining | 385 locations; 292 with a published price guide; 384 with a guest-approval rating | TouringPlans guest surveys and published price ranges; Tripadvisor snapshots where noted; menu links to Disney's site | Exact menu prices (enter them yourself in Exact items), seasonal menus, alcohol pricing |
| Resorts | 98 resort products; published nightly planning ranges for roughly a third of them | Published rack-rate ranges for a standard room, two adults, room only, collected October 2026 | Live availability, discounts, taxes and resort fees (verify at checkout), suites and villas |
| Special events | 106 dated party and after-hours nights | Secondary-source price captures with the event's own dates | Sell-outs after our snapshot; prices change by date |
| Park hours | Reported hours through December 21, 2026; the most common schedule by month for two prior years after that | WDWMAGIC reported calendars | Hours Disney has not yet published are a pattern, not a schedule |
| Lightning Lane | Daily posted Multi Pass prices per park, July 21, 2024 to November 2, 2026 (742 days); Premier Pass daily prices for November 1 to December 10, 2024 | Thrill Data price history (Multi Pass); AllEars price history (Premier Pass); RopeDrop price history with crowd levels (2026) | The exact price on a future date, which Disney sets daily; Premier Pass beyond its first season |
| Rides and shows | 147 attractions and shows with map coordinates, height requirements, thrill level, durations and planning waits | ThemeParks.wiki attraction list, October 12, 2026; height requirements compiled from Disney's published list | Closures and refurbishments after our snapshot; waits are planning tiers, not predictions |
| Live wait times | Current posted waits and status for every open ride, refreshed every five minutes | ThemeParks.wiki live feed. "Powered by ThemeParks.wiki" | Future days (live data is for today only) |
| Weather | A forecast when your dates are within about two weeks; otherwise the same dates from the previous three years, averaged | Visual Crossing, fetched when you open your plan | A guarantee of anything. Florida has afternoon storms; pack for them |
| Transportation | Airport transfer options and theme-park parking | Published fares and Disney's posted parking rate | Surge pricing, tolls, tips |
How the Lightning Lane estimate is built
For a date that already has a posted price we show that price. For a future date we find the comparable day one year earlier. Days within a holiday window move with the holiday: Easter, Thanksgiving, Presidents Day, Memorial Day, Labor Day and the MLK weekend each fall on a different date every year, so a Thursday that is Thanksgiving 2026 is compared with Thanksgiving 2025, not with the same calendar date. Christmas week and the July 4 week stay on the calendar date. Every other day is compared with the same weekday 52 weeks earlier. We then add the increase we have measured for that park across every matched pair of days in our history: Magic Kingdom +7.9%, EPCOT +8.8%, Hollywood Studios +7.4%, Animal Kingdom +1.9% a year (1,512 matched days, all parks +6.5%, median +6.7%). Holiday weeks have risen faster than the average: Thanksgiving +16%, Presidents Day +16%, Memorial Day +19%. The planner shows both the price a year ago and the estimate, with the alignment it used. When no comparable day exists it falls back to the nearest posted days within four days of the date, then to a seasonal pattern. Premier Pass has one year of posted prices, so its estimate uses 5% a year as a planning assumption.
How the park day timeline is built
For each park day the planner takes every attraction in that park, removes anything a child in your party is too short for (keeping it with a Rider Switch note when at least one child can ride), and orders the rest. It rope-drops the biggest ride your party can board, then moves through the park by priority and walking distance, places the meals you saved at lunch and dinner, adds an afternoon reset when someone is under six, puts the parade and the closing show where Disney usually runs them, and fills the late afternoon with scheduled shows. Walking times come from the real distance between attractions at 2.6 miles an hour with a factor for winding paths.
Waits are planning tiers (quiet, typical, peak) assigned per ride from planning norms, not a forecast for your date. When you open the timeline on the day itself, live posted waits replace them. Lightning Lane Multi Pass is modeled as a 10-minute wait on your three highest-wait eligible rides; Premier Pass as a 10-minute wait on every eligible ride.
How the packing list is built
Eight questions (dates, party, anyone under six, fancy dinners, water park, pool, flying or driving, laundry) plus the weather for your dates. The clothes count scales with trip length and halves if you plan to do laundry; swimsuits, water shoes, dinner outfits, stroller gear and carry-on rules appear only when your answers call for them.
What the chat does and does not do
"Ask the planner" uses an AI model to understand what you type (dates, party, which parks, hotel tier, pace) and fills in the plan. It is not allowed to state prices. Every number on the page comes from the data tables above, never from the model.
Affiliate links
Gear links in the packing list go to Amazon. If you buy through them, The Happiest Planner may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. We list items we would pack ourselves; nobody pays to be on the list.
What we get wrong, and how to tell us
Snapshots go stale. If you see a price, a height requirement or an hours entry that does not match what Disney shows, email hello@thehappiestplanner.com with a link or a screenshot and we will fix the data.
Written by Katherine Tarbox. Data snapshot October 12, 2026.